Articles
Original analysis, explainers, and arguments about the numbers behind the games. Updated as new pieces are written.
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NFL
Analytics
Going for it on fourth down: how the math finally won
For most of NFL history, fourth down was a cultural decision, not a mathematical one. The math had been screaming the opposite answer since the 1970s. Here's why coaches resisted, what changed, and what the analytics still don't capture.
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NBA
Explainer
How to actually read an NBA box score
Every column on the box score is supposed to tell you something. Most of them are also lying to you, or at least withholding important context. Here's what each number is really saying — and what to look at first when you only have ten seconds.
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NHL
Analytics
Save percentage is the most-quoted, least-useful goalie stat
Every NHL broadcast leans on save percentage like it's a verdict. It isn't. It's a ratio that treats every shot as the same, which is the one thing every shot definitely is not. Here's the case against it, and what to use instead.
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EPL
Analytics
Why expected goals outgrew the sport that invented it
xG started as a niche stat football traditionalists rolled their eyes at. A decade later it's on every broadcast graphic and every recruiting board. What it does well, what it still misses, and why it spread to every sport that lets you take a shot.